Demand for fee-paying, on-campus, degree-awarding, undergraduate and postgraduate education by domestic and international students is falling in developed countries. Demand is changing in shape and nature. It is migrating toward online, stackable, credentialed, personalised and globally available learning, and will continue to do so. Ignoring this is futile and dangerous.
Secondly, university public sympathy has reduced. As has employer satisfaction, staff morale, student satisfaction and government support, and the detrimental impact of the way government currently manages provision of learning has got worse. Meanwhile public, government and employer support for competitor innovative learning providers – not just universities – is growing and will continue to. You’re not the favourite child any more.
Thirdly, this is occurring while global demand for skills grows. But it is now less for school leaver graduates and more for lifelong learning, for an ageing population as falling birth rates become widespread, and as the need for skills updating rises exponentially. Global demand in developing countries for democratised access to lifelong learning is growing fast and will continue as a search for equity in global declining populations, amid geo-political turmoil, makes it inevitable.
